Wednesday, February 6, 2013

COMMUNICATION, TRANSPORTATION AND THE JETSONS


Remember the Jetsons?  That fabulous futuristic family in the television show of the same name that aired from 1962-3?  Well, the future depicted in the program was the year 2062, only 50 years away.
An interesting conclusion about our actual future can be made from the imagined images of the animated show.
The Jetson family -- husband George, wife Jane and children Judy and Elroy -- travel around Orbit City in an aerocar which looks like a cross between a flying saucer and a fishbowl.  Transportation is very advanced in 2062 with roads and highways eliminated as the aerocar travels above ground and enters and leaves buildings from elevated platforms.
Similarly, communication has reached a high level of sophistication with video calls on large screens (see visual) and on computer consoles.
Taking a step back to observe how these two technologies -- transportation and communication -- have evolved over the past 100 years to the present day, it's easy to conclude that these two areas have not developed at the same pace or kept up with each other over the period.
Karl Benz patented his single-cylinder Motorwagen in 1886, creating the first  internal combustion engine. In 1908 the Ford Model T revolutionized automobile production and pricing.  In 1903 the Wright Brothers made the first controlled sustained airflight under power.  In the interim between the turn of the 20th Century and the dawn of the 21st, the foundation of air and ground transportation have remained relatively constant.  From a design perspective, wheels, chassis, wings and fuselage take the same design cues regardless of era.
The same period in communication looks quite different.  In 1900 there were 676,733 Bell telephones in use.  In 1901 Marconi transmitted the first transatlantic wireless signal.  In 1921 the first electronically transmitted photograph was sent by Western Union.  The BBC began broadcasting a television signal in 1936.  In the mid-1950's computers and modems became available to the US military.  Russia launched Sputnik in 1961, the world's first artificial satellite.  Well, you get the picture.
Reviewing the developments in communication and in transportation over the past 100 years as points on a graph, communication has moved up at a faster rate compared with transportation.
Accepting this premise, then the Orbit City of 2062 would look quite different from how it appears in the Jetsons.  The video calls and computer terminals would stay, but the aerocars would go, replaced with more conventional wheeled vehicles traveling on familiar roads and highways.
Taking this observation to its conclusion, the advancement in methods of communication bring people closer to each other and therefore reduces the need for advancements in personal transportation.
So, when the iPhone 10 comes out, we may still be riding around in that old 2012 model year sedan.  And we probably wouldn't look out of place.  Even in Orbit City.

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